There are now two competing narratives gradually emerging in fresh questions over the performance of the Black vote on November 4th. Ultimately, neither explanation is very promising about the direction of the Black electorate as we gear up for yet another big election cycle in 2016.
One narrative suggests that national Black voter turnout was a little flat that day compared to the 2012 presidential election and relatively less in some states (where exit polling is available) compared to 2012 and 2010. Keep in mind that the heavily cited “exit polling” – merely an anonymous sample of voters that Election Day pollsters survey as they walk out of precincts – is not available in every state that holds an election, for reasons ranging from it’s expensive to some states not considered coveted “battlegrounds.” And if you’re comparing 2014 to 2010 (the last midterm election), you’ll find that some states this year didn’t have an election back then or vice-versa.
The other narrative contends that Black voter turnout was, indeed, higher, especially compared to 2010. Black pollster and Democratic strategist Cornell Belcher tweeted that “it’s a mixed bag … in fact, up from 2010 significantly in battle states, & whites made up smaller %. Black turnout was in fact better in battlegrounds than it probably had a right to be-losses wasn’t because Black vote didn’t improve over 10.” Congressional Black Caucus chair Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) was a bit more emphatic in a statement: “Democrats did not lose control of the Senate because African Americans did not vote. Actually, as supported by preliminary exit poll data, the complete opposite is the case. African Americans increased as a proportion of the electorate in 2014 over 2010. African Americans voted heavily for Senate Democrats, and by doing so remained loyal to both the president and the Democratic Party and its values. So, don’t blame us!”
Belcher, Fudge and others aren’t completely wrong. The problem is that the foundations are a bit shaky. This is why Fudge made sure to say “as a proportion of the electorate.”
Since last Tuesday, all we’ve been looking at are exit poll numbers – and, those aren’t complete. Exit polling only shows proportions of an estimated electorate. It’s not like exit pollsters are counting every ballot. And, as we all know, election night calls are typically based on projections since everyone lives in the age of instant gratification. No one wants to stay up all night waiting on the edge of their seat for ballot tallies – that would take too long. Folks have jobs to go to the next morning, kids to take to school. Which is why elections should be held on weekends (right, stupid?) … but, we digress …
A more accurate tabulation counts what Elections Project director and University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald prefers as “Total Ballots Counted.” Translated, that’s literally the total number of every vote cast. So far, we don’t have that total number for 2014. What we do have, for now, is “a second-best numerator is Highest Office, which in a presidential election year is the total votes for all presidential candidates including write-ins (where reported), and in a non-presidential election may be the vote for the highest turnout statewide office (typically governor) or if no statewide election was held, the sum of the congressional elections,” writes McDonald.
And what we do know is that this 2014 midterm election had much lower turnout (36.4%) than in the 2010 midterm (40.9%). Regardless of voter share or proportion, you’re going to find low turnout all across the demographic board.
That applies to Black voters, as well, especially when you calculate Total Ballots Counted. In 2010, Total Ballots counted stood at 90,912,015. With African Americans estimated at 11% of 2010 voter share, Total Black Ballots were 10,000,321.
That’s actually higher than 2014 – as far as we can tell now. Exit data show that Blacks were 12% of the voting population and, according to the Elections Project, we see 82,660,835 votes cast.
That means only 9,919,300 Black votes were counted last Tuesday, a 0.8% drop from 2010.
Looking at key states like Ohio and Illinois, there was no real spike in Black voter turnout in places where Democrats could have used it. Proportionally, Black voter share was up by 1% in Ohio, but down by 4% in Illinois. And even though it was up in Ohio, in terms of Total Black Ballots counted, only 504,000 Blacks voted in 2014 versus 593,404 in 2010.
Only in Kentucky and Louisiana did we see any significant increase in Total Black Ballots counted. This probably didn’t do much for Democrats in Kentucky since 8% of Black voters went for incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY).
To be fair, 2014 was higher than Total Black Ballots counted in the 2006 midterm. At that time, 8,576,913 Black ballots were cast out of a total nationwide 85,769,132.
But, when Black voter performance is assessed in these past three midterms against the presidential election, it doesn’t look good. In 2012 there were 16,938,006 Total Black Ballots counted – which means that there was a 41% drop in Black voter turnout between then and 2014. And despite all the talk about historic Black voter participation outpacing White voter participation in 2012, there was actually a 1.7% drop in Total Black Ballots counted between the 2008 presidential election and in 2012.
And on a grander scale, we know there are an estimated 51 million citizens not registered to vote in the United States – which is about 16% of the entire population. If we go by proportions that could mean an estimated 6,630,000 African Americans (13% of that population) are still not registered. That number increases once you add the number of ex-felons (a disproportionately Black population) being barred from voting.
As prominent Democratic Party affiliates responsible for strategic advisement on the black vote, many African American strategists and elected officials need to put some kind of happy spin on the situation after campaigns in critical states invested heavily in Black voter turnout. Everyone knew Democrats would sustain heavy damage at the polls that Tuesday, but many held out hope that a last minute push from loyal Black voters would turn the tide against an expected heavy turnout from very White Republican voters. Early voting numbers from places like Georgia, Maryland and North Carolina looked really good for Democrats – but, later analysis would find that many of these ballots were cast by folks who were going to vote anyway. From the perspective of Democratic officials who dropped a cool $60 million on a failed national ‘Bannock Street’ project, enormous resources were put into Black voter turnout ground operations. So, Black politicos are justifiably worried that less than vigorous Black voter performance in 2014 will give the Democratic Party an excuse to ignore Black political and policy needs. That’s a valid concern as White Democrats are already crafting a pitch for White working class voters.
The bottom line is that proportional Black voter share or representation on the voting pie chart is nothing to be proud of. Black voter turnout, like turnout everywhere, is down. There is a trend and it doesn’t look good. A depressed electorate continues to actively unplug itself from the political process after years of recession, unemployment and bad economic recovery, all compounded by a lack of recourse on issues ranging from poverty to police brutality. Adding insult to injury is a sophisticated and rigged system of voting restrictions enacted in multiple states. Getting to the polls is becoming much more difficult than an errand run. Many people are tuning out and looking to justify their disengagement. Rather than spin their way out of a difficult conversation, Black elected officials, strategists and advocates need to figure out why and act fast on reversing it.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a veteran political strategist and Chief Political Correspondent to Uptown Magazine. He is a frequent contributor to The Root and Washington Correspondent to the Philadelphia Tribune. He can be reached via Twitter @charlesdellison.