The Republican Party’s pick of Cleveland for its next nomination convention in 2016 made its splash as the least likely selection, yet there was no surprise there. If you took a Cleveland bet to Vegas or had some fun with a political office pool, you’d win a few dollars because in many ways it was the obvious pick. Dallas (deep in the heart of Texas) might have been the friendlier, safer route – but, it was also as White as you could bake it, right? Dallas itself might be highly diverse, about a quarter Black and over 40 percent Latino, but you can’t shake the Texas off it. This is the state that not only racked up more than 125,000 signatures to secede from the Union, but it has become one of several thriving hubs of Tea Partyism with its junior Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) among the list of whiny political Lone Starters, along with last term Governor and epic presidential fail Rick Perry (R-TX), who just won’t disappear. Mix that with expected all-White crowds wearing obligatory cowboy hats and silver-tipped boots and the GOP finds itself cementing the narrative that it won’t reach the White House due to demographics.
Of course, it still seems impossible – given population trends and hard-headed extremists – that a Republican will find his (no her seen) path to Pennsylvania Avenue in 2016. But, they hope Cleveland gets them a few inches closer. Ohio is less Texas, very much less southern and oozing much less with the scent of secessionism. And, it’s as Black as you can get, perhaps fitting – while clumsily – into the Republican National Committee’s longshot bid on Black outreach its pursued these days. Not that it will garner any Black votes, but it fits a new play, a new and rather clever messaging strategy that can yield some strange dividends if they persist with it.
It’s not about getting Black votes – it’s about getting just enough to eat into the edges of a margin. In 2004, President Bush managed to miraculously snatch up a record 16 percent of Ohio’s Black vote – 5 points more than his 11 percent share nationwide. That’s when then Democratic nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) lost.
Republicans are looking for a remake of that, as slim as it was. Democrats should worry. The cautionary tale, although now 10-years ago, is that all the GOP has to do is slice more than 10 percent into a usually Democratic-leaning Black voter pot to capture the White House. What about the Latino vote, though? That’s a different story – while Latinos tilt Democratic, a solid half are staying Independent and nearly a quarter of those Independents lean Republican, according to Gallup. And, suddenly, Republicans have managed to turn the immigration fracas on its head, creatively taking heat off their anti-migrant platform and successfully painting a distortion of President Obama as a deporting, anti-Latino tyrant who can’t control the border.
Plus (and we’ll talk about this later), the Latino electorate is maybe more of a shove than it is a punch at the moment.
Not making the GOP’s case for them, but there are some early indicators which should worry Democrats, among them the short memories of voters who forget about recent calamities like government shutdowns and games of debt ceiling chicken.
But, Cleveland is a sign that whatever nominee establishment Republicans have in mind for 2016, that candidate has to garner double the slice of Black vote than in the past two presidential cycles. Who that nominee will be is anyone’s best early guess. At the moment, obvious wannabe Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) is a strong bet as he somehow trips around into black colleges and churches while playing legislative tag team with Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ). A recent Zogby Poll shows Paul 7 points ahead of the current Republican hopeful pack, with Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) in a second place tie at 13% (oddly enough, Christie is still hanging in there).
The recent Mississippi Senate race, which the inside-the-box chattering class is dismissing as an anomaly that can’t be repeated, is also a model worthy eyeing. In this particular instance, we see Black voters cutting to a Republican candidate – if they think it’s in their interests. All a GOP 2016 candidate has to do is convince more than 10% of Black voters that he (let’s not fake it: it’ll be a he) can deliver on some key items. What we can’t see now is what that key issue will be: will it still be the economy? Probably – but, who knows, given the tense geopolitical climate and the “imminent threat” of folks like the Islamic State, something (God forbid) dramatic enough could happen to put national security back on the front burner … in a way that had enough Black folks feeling like Bush could keep them “safer” than Kerry in 2004. Steele didn’t win the Senate race in MD in 2006, but he still got 25% of the Black vote which was respectable even during that time of anti-Bush sentiment.
Plus: there will be no Obama around or on the ticket. When UPTOWN spoke with Rev. Al Sharpton last year, he was quick to point out that Democrats should be extra worried about that. There’s no guarantee a presumed Hillary Clinton nomination will garner a solid Black voter block just because it’s conventional wisdom African Americans love her husband. But, is that love as strong as it is for Obama?
And: what will make younger Black voters tick?
They will have been unborn or too young to remember a Clinton presidency, so they may feel differently about the old White lady running for president than their parents or grandparents do. We also shouldn’t discount the fact that given Obama’s tendency to not stump as hard for others as he does for himself, the Clintons should be a bit more wary about potential primary and general election competition down the line.
Do I think there’s a realignment of African American votes in the future? Of course not. But, I think folks should start thinking outside the box about 2016. There’s too much conventional wisdom floating around.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a veteran strategist and Chief Political Correspondent for UPTOWN Magazine. He’s also host of the live tweetcast #Uptownhall, Washington Correspondent for the Philadelphia Tribune and a frequent contributor to The Root. He can be reached via Twitter @charlesdellison.
Photo credit: Flickr/Rob Sinclair