I’ve never been one for apocalyptic theories. I scoffed at films like The Day After Tomorrow and sucked my teeth at the doomsday theory of 2012. However, when a NASA-funded study comes out stating that civilization will end in the next few decades, even I have to stop and pay attention.
The report, written by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei and a team of natural and social scientists, breaks down how and why civilization is, essentially, doomed. The team analyzed five risk factors for societal collapse: water, climate, agriculture, energy, and population. The report explains that over the past 5,000 years societies have collapsed when all of these factors converged to create two important criteria: ”the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity” and “the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or “Commoners”) [poor].”
So basically, this all boils down to the fact that a) we have very limited natural resources that we already use at a rate that is above that at which the earth can produce them and b) of those already strained resources, the rich are hoarding them to their advantage leaving even less for those without money. The elites will be able to hold out longer than the masses, due to their monopoly on resources, allowing them to continue on with business as usual, despite impending catastrophe. The scientists predict that this will all result in the deterioration of society. Ain’t that grand?!
[Image: Shutterstock]
There are many who would argue that technology will save us from this terrible fate, but the study gives a Dikembe Mutombo finger wave to that one:
“Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use.”
More or less, technology, although it promotes efficiency, does more harm than good because it tends to increase the rate at which we use the resources. Oh. Great.
But wait! There is a bright light at the end of this tunnel. Motesharrei provides solutions!
“Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion.”
Oh, so stop using resources at a rate that’s not sustainable and have the elites relinquish some of their power and resources as so to provide an equal playing field for everyone? Is that all? We’re screwed.
Even Motesharrei recognizes the improbability impossibility of the world waking up and the rich suddenly being generous to the poor. He concludes the paper by stating, ”closely reflecting the reality of the world today … we find that collapse is difficult to avoid.”
Well, I hope that sobering reality went down nicely with your morning cup of coffee. Enjoy the next few decades before certain societal collapse folks! I, for one, am going to start paying closer attention to ”The Walking Dead” and will be looking into learning how to farm and hunt … in New York City.