By Charles D. Ellison
Hacks, pollsters and pundits in the politics business call this “game theory” – fleshing out paths to victory by creating alternate universes and scenarios on a campaign war board. But, in this election, it’s not a game because the stakes are just too high.
President Obama has had his hands full – you can’t get it all done in just three years (minus one when you count the Congressional gridlock). But he’s faced with a wickedly divided electorate and shady Republicans that are spiteful enough to try something new –even if it means blowing it all up.
The polls are tightening. And along with uncertainty comes the realization that anything could happen: despite optimistic early ballot returns for the incumbent, GOP nominee Mitt Romney could best the brother in the White House.
If that were to happen, what would your world look like the day after President Obama loses? Just saying …
1. The First Black Family Will Get an Eviction Notice
That happy face feeling, cultural adrenaline and self-esteem shot you get from seeing Black Camelot on the cover of Ebony, JET, Essence and elsewhere? You know what I’m talking about. Well – forget about all that. Replace that with a collective negritudinal depression to match that of any felt since slavery.
2. Republicans Will Get Real Damn Cocky
In sports, you know how after you lose a game there are some folks who just love rubbing it in your face? That’s what most Republicans will do if Governor Mitt Romney wins: they will revel in a festive “In-Your-Face!” vilifying the loser as one of the worst Presidents and candidates of all time. Your White conservative co-worker with the Breitbart memorial screensaver only inches away from your cubicle? Expect them to do victory laps around the water cooler.
3. Everything Will Get Cut – Except Defense
Despite high unemployment being the actual national priority, the GOP has been extremely successful at pimping an obsession with that $16 trillion of national debt that just keeps on ticking. Their remedy? Cut everything from Head Start to Pell Grants to … well … yes … Big Bird, too. You’ll feel it from the unemployment benefits running out prematurely, the food stamps getting scarce and your kid not getting as much money for the semester as they did year before. But, if you’re in the military, you’ll be plenty protected. (Credit: Shutterstock)
4. President Romney Won’t Owe You (Black Folks) a Thing
For therapy, rent that 1998 cult classic Bulworth and check the scene where a fictitious Senator (played by Warren Beatty) going through a public mental meltdown goes unhinged on a crowded Black church. “Well … you haven’t really contributed any money to my campaign, have you?” If Romney wins, Politics 101 goes into full effect: you didn’t vote for me and you damn sure didn’t give me any money – therefore, you don’t get a damn thing. Knowing Romney, though, he’ll find a smoother way to put it.
5. Brace Yourselves for Possible Social Unrest
We hope not – but, there could be a lot of angry folks the night of November 6th if word gets out that President Obama lost. But, unemployed to underemployed to the most disenchanted cats on street corners will look for an excuse to wile out - “Say Obama just WHAT???” A few turned away at the polling station due to lack of Voter ID might also join in. Predictably, civil rights groups and Black elected officials will stage public boycotts of the White House shortly there-after, perhaps refusing to meet with a newly-elected President Romney and disallowing him the privilege of a photo-op. But, we’re talking more about the night of the election and the folks who have lost so much that they really don’t have anything to lose. Think 1992 L.A. riots or Smiley burning down Sal’s Pizza joint in Do the Right Thing.
6. Since Voter ID Worked, Other Rights Will Go South
Voter ID and other suppression tactics will absorb quite a bit of blame if Republicans happen to pull off an upset in November. But, the fact that it worked will embolden Republicans to keep going with it. Not to mention the fact that affirmative action and voting rights are on the Supreme Court chopping block at the moment.
7. Think Stuff is Expensive Now …
Republicans will, of course, cut everything from budgets to taxes. This will have a domino effect no one has sufficiently illustrated in plainspoken terms just yet, including President Obama. Everything is interconnected; which means, yes, government money paid to programs and contractors does, in fact, serve as a primary stimulator to the economy. Even Homer Simpson knows that. Widespread budget cutting means widespread economic malignancy. Which will mean more layoffs and ended government contracts. Which will mean less money circulating. Which will mean another economic meltdown. (Credit: Shutterstock)
8. We Just Might Find Ourselves in Another War
Candidate Romney hasn’t really articulated a foreign policy vision for President Romney (beyond sitting next to President Obama in Debate #3 and pretty much agreeing with what he said). But, we do know he’s relying on that same crowd of hawkish neo-conservatives who pushed for forays into Afghanistan and Iraq. Romney has already rattled campaign trail sabers on Iran and Russia, shades of the Cold War. No telling what’s next.
9. Republicans Can’t Repeal All of “ObamaCare,” but …
They certainly can and will nix key provisions in it. Definitely prepare for the decline and fall of the Affordable Care Act as we now know it. Or, did we even know what it was in the first place?
10. The Tea Party and Karl Rove Won’t Go Away
Even though they got next to no play during the Republican Convention (which was planned), your favorite neighborhood right wing-nuts will take credit for a winning ground game. And your favorite Jedi Master of the Political Dark Arts, former Bush political director turned SuperPAC King Karl Rove, will be rewarded with an office in the White House for helping subsidize the most expensive political upset in American history.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a political strategist and widely known expert on politics, campaigns, crisis communications and media based in Washington, D.C. He is a Washington Correspondent for The Philadelphia Tribune and Host of “Showdown 2012” on SiriusXM satellite radio POTUS Channel 124 every Thursday 7-9pm ET. He can be reached on Twitter @charlesdellison.
