Like the ratchetness that it is, there are now four opposing sides to the spasmodic debate over whether or not to impeach President Barack Obama. One side wants him out, the other hangs in there with him. Another side claims a recent lawsuit filed by House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) can actually save the president, the other side not so confident Boehner can actually keep his caucus from pushing the impeachment pendulum further.
Each side is interwoven into the side beside it, the following argument outmaneuvering or outplaying the other. It’s not just one faction of severely reddened right-wing fanatics who can’t wait the next two years before the president’s last term is up, but it’s now an overwhelming majority of Republicans who want him forced out. Opposed to that option are the nearly three-quarters of Americans who are willing to hang in there with them. The details or the reasons behind these bellicose calls for Obama’s impeachment don’t really matter as much as the politics surrounding it.
As soon as Sarah Palin yelled it, impeachment polls – predictably – are sprouting up like weeds (speaking volumes to the repugnant, carnival-like value her media brand still holds). YouGov shows a solid 32% of Americans wants to impeach Obama, just shy of the 34% that wanted to do the same to President Bush in a 2007 American Research Group poll:
Also expected is the exceedingly high number of Republicans – nearly 70% – that believe future impeachment of Obama is justified:
While it’s easy to dismiss Palin with teeth-sucking precision, the impeachment question is very real for the Obama White House, as well as Congressional Democrats bracing for this (courtesy of the University of Virginia Center for Politics):
It’s been a consistent image since early 2013, a scary scenario where Republicans capture enough seats to retain control of the Senate. With the GOP in full control of the House and Senate, pro-impeachment forces may sense enough of an upper-hand to move forward.
What should be worrisome for Democrats is that an impeachment in 2015 could be much harsher than Bill Clinton’s impeachment in 1998. Unlike 1998, Congressional Republicans won’t be pushed against any immediate midterm or presidential election calendar thereby offering them plenty of space to pursue Articles of Impeachment and a Senate conviction in just enough time to recover before 2016.
As worrisome as the partisan divide on the impeachment question are the spreads between those who say Congress wouldn’t be justified and those who don’t: 44% to 35% – with 21% saying they weren’t so sure. Democrats, curiously, aren’t sweating this enough, perhaps out of fear that talking too much about impeachment – even in opposition to it – will lead to its eventual materialization.
The spin-off from the main debate is one theory that Boehner’s lawsuit is an effective impeachment substitute pitched against an opposing theory that it really serves as a direct (or indirect) run-up to impeachment. Roll Call’s David Hawking suggests “one of the easier things to understand is what the litigation might accomplish inside the House Republican Conference: a cooling of the intensifying and politically problematic talk about how nothing short of impeachment will do.” The Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart, however, won’t leave anything to chance “because the speaker has no control over his caucus.” And Salon’s Heather Barton suspects there’s a grand Supreme Court strategy at play whereby Boehner’s law snakes its way to the high court in a sophisticated and bloodless coup d’etat that eventually evicts the First Family and helps conservatives circumvent standard democratic process.
The tension between the logic and insanity of Boehner’s litigation scheme is probably the most intriguing clash of ideas. There’s an almost comedic racial dynamic, as well, boiling down to this: one side, represented by the easy-going White guy, has faith that other White guys will do the right thing; but, the cynical Black guy – instincts finally kicking in from the DNA of a four hundred year ass kicking – probably sees some writing on the wall.
Few will admit it, but race could be the big differentiator in an impeachment proceeding against President Obama compared to Clinton’s impeachment. Should impeachment happen, Obama may find little luxury in his Blackness, cursed to the remainder of a presidency plagued by a heavy cloud of rejections fueled by old fashion racial skullduggery. Going back to the YouGov poll, a majority of Whites, 57%, believe Obama has exceeded his Constitutional powers just like a majority of Whites, 40%, believe there is justification for impeachment – along with near 30% who believe his “actions” warrant impeachment.
Politically, however, Democrats could flip that equation by simply tapping into clear Black opposition to impeachment – 64% don’t believe there is any justification – the same way they tapped Black voter anger over voter ID and voter suppression laws in the 2012 elections. By turning present impeachment fervor into an existential threat against Obama, Democrats could potentially mobilize an otherwise fading African American midterm electorate.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a veteran strategist and Chief Political Correspondent for UPTOWN Magazine. He is also host of #Uptownhall and Washington Correspondent for the Philadelphia Tribune. He can be reached via Twitter @charlesdellison.