So, 7 million plus people signed up for the Affordable Care Act because …. well … 7 million people had to. It’s the law.
Not really trying to piss on anyone’s parade, as the old saying goes. But one can’t resist injecting a fresh bit of political reality into the discussion. This is not something the White House or vulnerable Democrats can celebrate as a political game changer reversing expected bad fortunes in November.
It’s a nice achievement to carry around on your bucket list of legislative legacies, for sure. And, I guess I’d be patting myself on the back, too, after several long and torturous years of political sword fights over this thing. After all, we’ve literally litigated it over the course of three full federal legislative cycles, go ahead and throw in several state legislature and gubernatorial races to boot. In fact, we’re about to head into the fourth consecutive federal election cycle where, yet again, we’re going to witness pouty-ass partisans pillow fighting over healthcare. To get this thing passed then codified into law and brush off multiple repeal efforts is quite a feat of political fortitude. I’ll give the President that.
But, I’m not so sure the sign-ups rise to the occasion of Rose Garden regalia and Happy song bird-flips at Republicans. Maybe that gets the party base faithful all riled up to know that, in the end, all that hard work and annoying tit-for-tat over “Obamacare” was really worth it. Maybe it’s good to show how much you feel vindicated, that – in the end – it eventually worked.
Still, there’s something sophmoric and, politically, April foolish in throwing more rhetorical vinegar on the situation.
Red-faced Republicans already know the Affordable Care Act is sticking around, which is why they keep using it to fire up their base. There’s a feeling that the White House should have sat back quietly and chilled on this one. Put out a press release, float a blog on WhiteHouse.gov and keep it moving like business as usual. You can’t put party hats on for something you’re supposed to do.
Seven million plus fam signed up because 7 million plus had no choice but to as the March 31st deadline fast approached. Barely contained glee on the part of the White House painted an infomercial of 7 million people who merrily pranced their way home to sit down and register for healthcare – on a flawed website that’s already spent $400 million of the nearly $700 million obligated.
A much more accurate picture reveals millions of Americans getting word that – “oh, shit” - they just procrastinated through several long months of partisan stage battles on the topic and didn’t quite know what to do. Some folks were like: “Do I sign up or what?” In the end, many realized it all boiled down to either signing-up or getting hit with penalties – which is enough to get people motivated when they’re already living tight. The impression that sign-ups translated into pro-ACA enthusiasm is a bit off and politically dangerous. People signed up because they had to.
With the 2014 Congressional midterms on the horizon, there’s no guarantee that the 7 million sign-ups are going to miraculously turn into Democratic-leaning votes pushing back at the Republican rage expected in November. The key question is whether or not this keeps Republicans from flipping the Senate. According to Gallup, only 10 percent of Republicans and 9 percent of Independents like the law compared to 78 percent of Democrats – and, I don’t know about you, but 78 percent is nothing for Democrats to beam proudly about if that means nearly a full quarter of your own folks don’t like your law during a crucial election year. And YouGov still shows 52 percent of Americans consider the overall implementation of the Affordable Care Act a “failure.”
This is not an argument against the Affordable Care Act since the nation needs a healthcare fix like the planet needs one for global warming. And it’s not like Republicans have come up with any spectacular Plan B – nor do they want to. It’s to simply point out the monumental political mishap in prematurely waving victory flags around the Olympic track before winning the race. More sign-ups don’t dramatically change the negative political narrative surrounding the ACA. The White House may have fixed the website, but it really has to figure out how to fix the politics. This is still a highly unpopular law, more so due to red state/tea party-instigated hatred for the president being channeled through it. The wiser move: just let the headlines organically exonerate the president as he popped corks silently in the Oval Office.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a veteran political strategist and Chief Political Correspondent for UPTOWN Magazine. He is also Washington Correspondent for the Philadelphia Tribune and a frequent contributor to The Root. He can be reached via Twitter @charlesdellison.