By Charles D. Ellison
Emotions are running high. Outrage is spilling over like hot coffee bubbling from a broken Zeurig. And, the proverbial pitchforks are crowding about the palaces of state, local and federal power. Every parent wants something done now, and many – a week later – are still stunned by the thought of mere kids being savagely (and repeatedly) gunned down.
But, if you think anything is going to happen anytime soon, check yourself into a local course on civics and the political process.
Casual, non-political observers of Sandy Hook would be wise to take heed. Signs of obstacles to any “meaningful” gun control legislation were already emerging like acne sores on the Sunday talk show circuit only days after Newtown. Republicans aligned with the gun rights lobby were anxiously crafting a peculiar array of proposals gradually shifting the conversation away from the left. While the left screamed “about time” for sweeping weapons bans, the right pushed back with Dirty Harry visuals. From arming teachers to populating schools with trained, gun-toting “good guys.”
The key: messaging strokes at a bit of simple political genius. Taking high-powered, multi-round assault rifles and semi-automatics off WalMart shelves will take a lot of time. Months to years of legislative trench warfare on Capitol Hill and in the state houses. But, the gun lobby masterfully plays to the rawest of human and animal instincts: protecting the cubs.
A recent National Rifle Association press conference (you have to watch this – it’s better than Scandal) didn’t just offer a choice between being protected against evil madmen spraying bullets at innocent victims and, well, not. The real choice was time. Instant gratification versus the patience of Washington Job. “You want armed guards?” asks the NRA like used car salesman. “We got your armed guards. In fact, they’ll work for free.” That changes the whole dynamic. It’s like a re-spun, re-mixed Black Sheep single: You Can Get With This (tough ass, balding White MOFOs ready to blast any crazed nut) or You Can Wait For That (the slow moving turtle of task forces, debates, committee hearings, and long votes, etc.).
In terms of political calculus and crisis management, it’s brilliant. Detractors may call the NRA insensitive and inhuman. Twitter was ablaze with insults, snaps and back-of-the-school-bus rocks thrown at NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre. But, at the end of the day if you’re the NRA, what can you do? “No one has addressed the most important the most pressing and immediate question we have faced: how do we protect our children now?” asked LaPierre.
Someone is giving them pretty damn good advice.
This debate is about buying time. More time and more wait means less done. While tragic, Sandy Hook’s timing was politically significant. It happened just when Congress is in the middle of a “lame duck” session and fiscal cliffhangers. Capitol Hill is ready to bounce; Members are eager to get back home and chill around the Christmas tree – so bad is that urge that they’re even willing to let the whole national piggy bank jump off the cliff. No one in Washington has the stomach for an eleventh debate on anything, much less gun control.
Which says a lot about how this will go down. If the massacre of 20 small kids won’t push lawmakers to immediate action on some level, what will?
Social angst and sadness are at record levels – but, seriously, how long will that last? As holidays set in, winter winds blow against quiet neighborhood streets settling in over unwrapped gifts with toasty cups of hot chocolate, Irish Joe and egg nog. Passions will cool down to an unrecognizable pre-Sandy Hook simmer. The solemn reflection will still be there, but the lit phones and email action alerts invading Capitol Hill will fall near silent.
Attention will end up elsewhere, especially as politicians drop the ball on the fiscal cliff. As failed budget negotiations begin hitting paychecks and pockets, Newtown will end up last in the features section. Global markets may react violently, investor eyes twitching at new losses. Fears of a new recession will just about erase fears on school safety.
Plus, let’s consider that gun control and fiscal cliffhangers are not mutually exclusive events loitering on their own street corners. All Washington issues and conflicts are interconnected, each influencing the other through strings of people, places and events. President Obama’s call for a task force (which, as much as he would hate to admit it, is really another “Washington commission”) is an indication that he’s carefully plodding his way through gun control. Even though he has the luxury of being re-elected and is now in a second final term, getting stuff done still means he’ll have to negotiate. Will he risk complete fiscal meltdown, potential social unrest and a Greek-crisis scenario by sparring with 2nd Amendment fans who already hate him? How far will he push on one issue at the expense of another? White House operatives are clearly crunching the cost-benefit analysis.
Whether we like it or not, politics – which is not policy – drives any chance at a national transformation of gun talk. Our friends at the Center for Responsive Politics (you should make a habit of checking them out) finds that the NRA is among the top 140 political donors in the country, classifying them as a “Heavy Hitter.” In 2012, it dropped $24 million alone into the elections, with $3.2 million against President Obama and $885,000 for Mitt Romney. That’s serious loot that Democrats and Republicans just can’t ignore.
And it’s not like the gun control lobby is putting up any sort of fight. The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, considered a leading voice advocating gun control, barely managed to spend $5,000 in 2012. So, who’s taking who serious?
Meanwhile, 51% of the Members of the new 113th Congress all received money from the NRA political action committee during the course of their careers – 47% just received money from the NRA during the 2012 cycle (an organization known to invest anywhere from $100,000 – $200,000 for a single Congressional election). Two Members, one from each party, sit on the NRA’s board.
Lastly: are we really seeing a change in public mood on gun control? Probably not. A recent Pew survey found only 49% of Americans say the issue is important while 42% want gun rights intact. After Aurora it was 47% to 46%. In a hint that the NRA is carefully parsing the polls, 53% said go for it: increase the police presence at schools. This time next year, Newtown won’t be much more than an anniversary.
CHARLES D. ELLISON is a political strategist, insider and analyst with over two decades of expertise. He’s Washington Correspondent for the Philadelphia Tribune and host of “Showdown” on SiriusXM 124, Thursdays 7-9pm ET. He can be reached via Twitter @charlesdellison. (Warning: the views expressed don’t reflect conventional wisdom).
